The objective need and trend of ensuring the food security in Russia in conditions of import substitution

The article describes in detail two key elements of Russian food security: self-sufficiency and the potential of the domestic food market. It is these two factors that are regulated at the state level through the standards included in their composition. The article shows how the state policy of the Russian Federation for the regulation of food markets changed from the reform period to the present. Our studies have shown that the strengthening of measures for import substitution after 2014 has not yet allowed us to achieve complete self-sufficiency in all types of food. This is partly due to objective restrictions (for vegetables and fruits) and insufficient efforts to develop the industry (dairy and meat cattle breeding). In addition, by those types of food, according to which the thresholds of self-sufficiency are made, the dependence on imports is shifted to the area of industries that provide means of production (seeds, technique, etc.). A detailed analysis of food imports showed that after 2014 its volume decreased (as a result of a reduction in the effective demand and growth in agricultural production), while its commodity structure has practically changed. Analysis of the capacity and structure of the food market of the Russian Federation showed that the Russian population in long-term dynamics due to low income is not balanced. In addition, the reduction of disposable income over the past 6 years leads to a change in the structure of consumption towards an increase in the share of cheap poor-quality products. Thus, the issue of ensuring food security remains relevant and paramountable at the state level.


Introduction
The modern economy of developed states of the world is not so much production as consumer character. To the same model of society, many developing countries are striving. If you previously, it was the physical creation of non-food and food products that were the basis for their subsequent consumption, today consumption acts as a development driver not only material but also intangible production. Acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the development of digital and information technologies only contribute to the consolidation of this trend. At the same time, both the production process itself has changed significantly and the requirements for labor resources participating in it.
The significantly increased scale of consumption has an impact on many trends, observed both in global farming as a whole and in the economy of specific countries of the world [1]. In fact, in the conditions of post-industrial society, everyone becomes an essential element of the reproduction system, even if it does not participate in the direct process of the production of goods and services but is only their consumer. That is why the modern parameters of any national economy also depend on the population of the country. From this point of view, the most important task of the state as a social and political institution is to preserve the health, physical and mental longevity of citizens of their country [2].
In modern conditions, to achieve continuous reproduction of both the country's population and the labor force (physical and intellectual), the state should ensure not only the physical and economic availability of basic food products but also their safety for human health. In its aggregate, all these components characterize food security. According to one of the definitions, it represents the constant ability of the state and its agri-food sphere to ensure accessibility in safe foods for all residents of the country in volumes corresponding to rational consumption standards [3]. In modern conditions, most developed economies of the world are characterized by a tendency to reduce the share of the agrarian sphere in the creation of a gross domestic product, even though food production is an essential state task. Ensuring food security is a targeted landmark of the national independence and sovereignty of any country [4]. In Russia, in recent times, in connection with the policies of import substitution, there is not only an increase in the production of many types of agricultural raw materials and food but also the formation of export potential according to some of them.
In general, food security is the continuous ability of the state and society to provide for the entire population of the country the availability of food products of their production of relevant quality and in the required amount [5].

Research Methods
The food security system of any state consists of the interaction of the following elements related to each other: the self-sufficiency of the domestic food market for food production (or the degree of dependence on imports for each type of food); The capacity and structure of the domestic market (formed as the actual volumes of consumption by the population of food depending on solvency, nutrition traditions, etc.); physical and economic availability of food; Quality of food.
The study aims to identify major trends in ensuring the food security of Russia, including in the conditions of the currently held plotting of import substitution.
To achieve the goal, the following tasks are delivered: to determine the economic essence of the category of food security; determine the factors forming its level; identify and analyze the objective socioeconomic and political conditions in the dynamics affecting the state of food independence of the country; analyze the development of Russian food markets in a long dynamics of criteria included in the system of food safety indicators; Formulate conclusions about the problems and prospects for ensuring state food security.
The work used a complex of economic research methods, which includes general scientific methods, methods of statistical analysis, strategic analysis.
The main information base for research was the statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Customs Service, the reports of the Ministry of Agriculture on the implementation of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulating the Markets of Agricultural Products, Rawness and Food.
A feature of the research methodology is that the main indicators of food security are instruments for regulating the agri-food market at the state level through the system of approved norms and indicators. Selfsufficiency is based on the threshold values of the doctrine of food security at the maximum level of the main types of food production in the total amount of their resources. The rationale for the market capacity is calculated based on the recommended rational food consumption rate. The physical availability of food is justified, based on the norms of the population's secure trading platforms and distances to them. Economic accessibility is laid into the calculation of the subsistence minimum and depends on the level of income of the population. The quality of food forms the health status of the inhabitants and is regulated by the GOSTs and certificates.

Results and Discussion
During the existence of the Soviet Union, the authorities set a goal to achieve maximum self-sufficiency in agricultural raw materials and food, and it was an integral part of state policy. At that time, a variety of natural and climatic conditions also contributed to the republics that are independent states today [6].
With the collapse of the USSR, when the ideological basis of the confrontation and tension in the world was in the past, the Russian ruling elite has formed a false idea that there is no need to produce something on their own if it is more profitable for less money to buy abroad. As a result, many sectors of the national economy of our country, including in the agro-industrial complex, significantly lost their potential during the planned economy. However, the actions of our Western "partners" increasingly showed that their political and economic interests, and the corresponding practical actions, often go against the same progressive theoretical concepts of free trade. The final understanding by the Russian ruling elites the objective needs to ensure food security and the independence of Russia at the expense of its production in the conditions of developing geopolitical realities came in connection with the events of 2014. After that, import substitution programs were fully launched, especially in the spheres of the agroindustrial complex.
In Russia in the 90s of the 20th century, it was observed, on the one hand, a decrease in the volume of many types of agricultural products, on the other hand, an increase in its imports. At this time, in the conditions of the systemic economic crisis and hyperinflation, the incomes of the inhabitants of our country decreased significantly, their effective demand decreased, and the population to ensure their food needs were forced to increase production of plant and animal products in their households. Food industry enterprises located in metropolises and major cities, to minimize their costs began to work with imported suppliers of meat and dairy raw materials. The state bodies responsible for the supply of cities have also become focused on the overseas delivery of several types of food products. All this reduced the demand for the products of plant and animal origin, which were produced by domestic agricultural organizations. As a result, many of them went bankrupt.
During the first decade of the XXI century, when a lively growth in the Russian economy was observed in the Russian Federation, including an increase in prices in the global oil market, and significantly increased due to this currency revenue, the volume of importation of agrifacilities from other states was also increased [7]. During this period, the domestic production of agricultural products was restored, but slow pace. Import continued to occupy significant positions in the food provision of the population of our country, especially in meat, dairy, vegetable, fruit, and berry products.
However, the economic crisis of 2008, and then the political events of 2014, when, after the imposition of sanctions against our country, Russia was forced to respond to counter-replications, there was a decrease in the volume of importation of foreign products, including agricultural. In 2013, imports amounted to $ 314 billion, and in 2014 -$ 287 billion, followed by their reduction to 182.4 billion US dollars in 2016. Little revival of the Russian economy In 2017-2019 It did not allow to increase the import parameter from foreign countries to the maximums achieved earlier, and in 2020, especially in a pandemic, the number of imports was comparable only with the level of 2010 -$ 233.7 billion. The import structure of imports over the past 20 years has not changed significantly, that is, the sanctions after 2014 almost did not affect it. In the structure of imports almost half (49.1%), cars, equipment, and vehicles are occupied, in second place for the share of the chemical industry (18.5%), and in third place -food (about 13%). Import substitution policy, most actively held after the events of 2014, has become a priority in all areas of economic activity and, especially in the agricultural sphere. She, among other things, was associated with the need to saturate the market of our country in the food products of its production, to ensure their physical, as well as (due to large volumes and possible reduction in the cost of the unit of products) and economic accessibility [8].
In the state program of development of agriculture and regulation of the markets of agricultural products, raw materials, and foods for 2013-2020, accelerated import substitution becomes one of the three main goals. In general, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Government of the Russian Federation positively evaluate the results of this program. Despite the prolonged stagnation of the economy under the influence of sanctions, as well as corona infection, Russian agriculture demonstrates a sustainable increase in production in almost all sectors, increasing the level of efficiency and number of profitable enterprises, as well as an increase in agricultural exports. However, according to some types of food products, including for objective reasons, dependence on imports remains.
The largest share of imports is noted in the resources of milk and dairy products, especially in such types of products as milk and cream, cheeses, and butter. A more positive trend is in the meat market: the share of imports from maximum values of 43.8% in 2008 decreased to 7.1% in 2019. That is, due to the growth of domestic meat production since 2015, our country fulfills the requirements of the food security doctrine approved by the Presidential Decree RF dated 21.01.2020 No. 20.
Obviously, on several products, import addiction cannot be overcome due to the lack of economic feasibility of their products in our country. These include some types of vegetables, many fruits, and nuts, coffee, tea, spices, cocoa, tobacco, olive oil [9]. Their cumulative share in food import is about 5%.
The implementation of the policy of import substitution of food products has reflected on the geography of imports. Thus, in 2015, the proportion of foreign countries' importers in the total supply of agricultural raw materials and food was at the level of 83.8%, and in 2020 it fell to 78.8%. At the same time, the structure of importing countries has changed significantly: if in 2015 the countries of the European Union (21.5%) occupied a significant proportion, then in 2020 it decreased to 2.5%. At the same time, significantly increased the supply of food products to Russia such countries as Ecuador, Argentina, Iran, Paraguay.
Economic transformations in Russia at the beginning of the 21st century affected the structure of labor resources, the dynamics of income of the population, and, ultimately, the features of food consumption [10].
Given the changes in human labor, some countries of the world, including Russia, approached the change in food consumption standards. To the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation of August 19, 2016, relatively similar norms of 2010 there is a decrease in the recommended average annual parameters of use in food bakery products, potatoes, sugar. On bread products (bread and pasta in terms of flour, flour, groats, legumes) in 2010, it was recommended that 95-105 kg per capita consumption, and in the standards of 2016 -96 kg. The potato consumption standards are reduced from 95-100 kg to 90 kg, sugar from 24-28 kg to lower boundary in 24 kg.
In 2016, in the eggs, meat, and dairy products, the corresponding parameters were approximately at the same level as in 2010, but if we consider the recommended standards in the Soviet Union in the 70the 80s of the last century, then in 2016. There is a reduction in the norms regarding the time. At the same time, there is an increase in the norms of consumption of fruits, vegetables and melons, fish products. In the order of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation of August 19, 2016, they were taken at the upper border from the similar 2010 -100 kg of fruits, 140 kg of vegetables and melons, 22 kg -fish products. In general, reducing the recommended standards of consumption of carbohydrate-containing types of products (bread products, potatoes, sugar), and the increase in fruits, vegetables, and mesh, fish products correspond to the trends characteristic of the trend on the formation of the so-called "healthy lifestyle".
However, the comparison of these norms with the real level of consumption of the average resident of our country shows that the population is still overeating bread products, potatoes, sugar, and does not donate vegetables, fruits, fish products [11]. This is especially noticeable in the regions of Russia, characterized by lower incomes compared with the residents of megacities [12].

Conclusion
The study according to the stated problem allows us to make the following main conclusions.
Firstly, food independence is such a state of the national agri-food sector, which can ensure the creation of basic types of agricultural products (raw materials and food) mainly through its production in volumes of at least 80% of the annual demand of the population of the state for these food products following recommended physiological nutritional standards. This threshold value, on the one hand, makes it possible to determine the degree of independence of the country from imports for each product, and on the other hand, to interpret the conclusions about the rapid quantitative development of Russian agricultural production. We believe that Russia, due to the recent trend of a stable excess of the mandatory level of self-sufficiency in grain, sugar, sunflower oil, has a significant export potential for these types of products with the prospect of increasing it [13]. However, this should not happen due to the contraction of the domestic market, especially if there is a decrease in the income of the population [14].
Nevertheless, even though for many types of food products there has recently been a relatively high degree of provision through domestic production, there is a significant share of imports of some technical and raw materials that are used in the process of creating these agricultural products. The dependence of domestic producers on imported means of production for some types is critical (more than 50%), for example, for sugar beet seeds, breeding material in poultry farming, pig breeding, and beef cattle breeding, veterinary medicines, premixes for compound feed, in terms of agricultural machinery and equipment for animal husbandry [15]. This situation can be characterized as an unstable form of food independence. It is impossible to solve the problem of the dependence of the Russian food market on imports without stimulating the rapid development of the branches of the first sphere of the agro-industrial complex.
Secondly, the actual volumes of food consumption by the population form the level of self-sufficiency of the state with food. Rational consumption rates of basic foodstuffs, recommended by the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences and approved by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, make it possible to assess the quality aspect of the saturation of the food market and are also used to calculate its potential capacity. With a decrease in real incomes of the population, demand shifts in favor of relatively cheap food products, which are characterized by low quality.
Third, food availability is characterized by two characteristics: physical and economic. In particular, the Doctrine of Food Security, approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated January 21, 2020, No. 20, provides basic definitions of these concepts. Thus, the physical availability of food is the level of development of the commodity distribution infrastructure, at which in all settlements of the country it is possible to purchase food products by the population or organize meals in volumes and assortments that are not less than the established rational norms for food consumption. In turn, the economic availability of food products is ensured if the level of income of the population allows them to purchase food products at current prices in an amount corresponding to rational consumption standards. Physical, that is, infrastructural accessibility is formed depending on the regional characteristics of economic development. Economic affordability directly depends on the income level of the population.
In the modern world, despite the reduction in the share of the agricultural sector in the creation of the gross domestic product, the production of agricultural raw materials and food is the most important sector of the economy of developed countries [16]. The authorities and authorized bodies of these countries, using various forms of non-tariff restrictions, strive to the maximum extent to limit the access of many types of foreign products of plant and animal origin to domestic markets [17]. This is done with the awareness of the importance of domestic production of agricultural products, primarily strategically important from the point of view of ensuring national food security and independence.
In modern geopolitical conditions, ensuring the food independence of Russia is the most important strategic task [18]. The import substitution policy, which began to be carried out in our country, including in the agrarian sphere, in response to the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by several countries of the world, makes it possible to strengthen national food independence and security and creates the basis for the development of export potential for certain types of production and its expansion for the future [19]. Nevertheless, the conducted research allows us to conclude that now the food security of our country can be characterized as unsustainable. It is necessary to intensify efforts to overcome the dependence on imports of means of production in certain sectors of agriculture and to increase their production of dairy products, vegetables, and fruits [20].