Methane reduction in Kazakhstan: present situation and potential

. The battle against methane emissions has evolved into a global mission, with 150 producing countries worldwide, including the United States, Canada, Germany, Australia, and others, pledging their commitment to the Global Methane Pledge. This new initiative was introduced in 2021 during COP26 in Glasgow, United Kingdom, as part of the ongoing efforts to implement the Paris Agreement. The primary objective of this Agreement is a collective endeavour to reduce methane emissions by 30% by the year 2030. In this article, the authors analyse current methane emissions and provide recommendations to the country's government regarding its participation in the Global Methane Pledge by utilising official national statistical data and insights from the EIA and employing predictive modelling techniques.


Introduction
In his September State of the Nation Address, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, K. Tokayev, once again emphasised the importance of transitioning to a green economy and implementing the Strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 (from now on referred to as the "Strategy") [1], with a priority focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions [1].As is known, our country, a signatory to the Paris Agreement in 2015, has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 15-25% by 2030 [2].This commitment encompasses six gases, as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the United Nations, including carbon dioxide and methane.Article 281 of the Environmental Code includes the exact list of gases, obliging enterprises operating within the Republic of Kazakhstan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [3].
As widely recognised, methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, contributing to 30% of the contemporary global warming attributed to anthropogenic activities [4] (IEA, 2022).According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the greenhouse effect resulting from methane emissions surpasses carbon dioxide by over 85 times (particularly within the first 20 years of its presence in the atmosphere).In light of this, countries that have become signatories to the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) commit to a collective goal.By 2030, they aim to reduce global methane emissions by 30% compared to the 2020 baseline while adopting advanced practices for methane emission inventories as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [5].The successful fulfilment of this Commitment is anticipated to reduce global warming by 0.2 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 [5].Kazakhstan's involvement in the Global Methane Pledge aligns with the Strategy's goals and opens doors to additional opportunities.It can attract green investments aimed at decarbonising the national economy and enhancing the quality of life for the population, especially in regions engaged in hydrocarbon extraction.Hence, participants in the 2nd Climate Dialogue have emphasised that, to successfully implement the Strategy and mitigate climate change processes, the government should prioritise Kazakhstan's accession to the Global Methane Pledge and have provided a series of recommendations.For instance, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources should take measures to enhance methane inventory and monitoring, particularly in the energy, agriculture, and waste sectors, drawing from the expertise of oil and gas companies that are already employing international methodologies for methane emission assessments.To reduce methane emissions in agriculture, the Ministry of Agriculture should promote the development of organic farming and livestock management practices [6].

Material and methods
Methane has a high global warming potential, exceeding that of carbon dioxide by a factor of ten.Consequently, the international community is collaborating to curb emissions of this greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.As part of their commitments under the United Nations' Paris Agreement, participating nations have pledged to limit the global temperature increase to no more than 1.5-2 degrees Celsius, mainly focusing on reducing anthropogenic impacts on the climate system [7].Specifically, countries are paying attention to methane, which is assessed to account for 30% of the observed warming [4].According to official data, methane emissions in Kazakhstan were reduced by more than 50% from 1990 to 2012 [8].However, according to the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, emissions have increased by almost 20% over the past decade.The primary sources of emissions today are livestock (38%), the oil industry (24%), coal (13%), waste (10%), and natural gas (8%) [9].Can methane emissions in the country be lowered over the next decade?Projections suggest that accomplishing this task is extremely difficult.Nevertheless, let us take a closer look at the details.
The Oil and Gas Sector.All major international companies operating in the country have announced their methane emissions reduction goals: Shell aims to reduce emissions by 50% from 2016 levels by 2030; Total Energies aims for an 80% reduction from 2020 to 2030, while Eni is aiming for a 30% reduction over the same period; Chevron will lower its specific methane emissions by 50% from 2016 levels by 2028.Technologies for reducing leaks, technological emissions, and methane utilisation have long been developed and tested so they can be applied to facilities operated by other industry companies.Achieving emissions reductions of 30% or more is a pretty realistic objective.
Coal.The most significant methane emissions are linked to underground coal mining, while emissions during surface mining are relatively low.In Kazakhstan's largest coal basin, the Karaganda Basin, a significant proportion of coal is extracted from underground mines.Numerous technologies for capturing and utilising methane from these mines are readily available.Hence, the potential for reducing emissions is considerable.Additionally, in the long-term perspective, the demand for Kazakh coal will probably decrease.
Waste.Large volumes of methane are generated at landfills and solid waste disposal sites.According to the Environmental and Energy Studies Institute (EESI), 1 million tons of waste generates 12,200 cubic meters of methane daily [10].
Many countries have implemented numerous projects to recover landfill methane, its utilisation, or combustion for energy purposes.During the period of the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness until 2012, hundreds of similar projects were initiated, with many receiving funding from the global carbon market [11].The technologies required for these initiatives are readily available and have proven to be highly efficient.
Kazakhstan has a substantial potential for such projects, and there is a real possibility of significantly reducing methane emissions in this sector, even approaching zero, particularly by establishing conditions for carbon credits.
Livestock.Cattle farming, the predominant source of methane emissions in this sector, has witnessed significant growth within the country in recent years.A substantial portion of meat production caters to both domestic consumption and export markets.To mitigate methane emissions, specific dietary additives that reduce internal fermentation, adjustments in feeding practices, and the substitution of cattle with other meat-producing animals and poultry are effective strategies [12].
The battle against methane emissions has evolved into a global mission.For instance, the United States and Canada (with significant emissions across all sectors), Brazil and Argentina (primarily in cattle farming), Nigeria and Norway (prominent figures in the oil industry), and Indonesia and Australia (leading coal producers) are signatories of the Global Methane Pledge [5].
International financial institutions, such as the World Bank, EBRD, the Asian Development Bank, and others, actively endorse methane reduction initiatives worldwide, aligning with the broader agenda of decarbonising economies.Instances of funding being withheld from projects that worsen methane emissions can be seen, such as the Inter-American Development Bank's rejection of a $200 million loan to the significant meat producer Marfrig (Brazil), even though it was intended to support the company's green development plans [13].
Climate considerations are gaining prominence not only in international policy but also in business development paradigms.Kazakhstan's national goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 undeniably entails significant methane emissions reductions.Collaborative efforts with other countries and partners can provide the necessary impetus to address this challenge effectively.

General analysis of methane emissions dynamics in economic sectors for the period 1990-2021
Currently, methane constitutes an average of 12.4% of the national greenhouse gas emissions [9].
As of the end of 2021, the energy sector still held the majority, responsible for 49.2% of methane emissions, totalling 1174.2 kt.The agricultural sector contributed 40.8%, equivalent to 973.5 kt, while the waste sector accounted for 9.9% or 235.4 kt.The LULUCF sector contributed 0.1%, amounting to 2.3 kt.The share of the industrial processes sector (the metallurgical industry) in methane emissions in Kazakhstan is approaching zero.
In addition to the assessments conducted by «Zhasyl Damu» JSC, other international assessments significantly differ (as shown in Table 1).These discrepancies can be attributed to the use of different methodologies.
For instance, according to the International Energy Agency's assessment, methane emissions in Kazakhstan amount to 3,719 kt (or 1.0% of global methane emissions), which exceeds the «Zhasyl Damu» JSC estimates by 55.6%.Similarly, O'Rourke et al.'s [15] estimates are 38.3%higher, and Crippa et al.'s [16] are 4.1% higher.Conversely, according to CAIT/FAO and UNFCCC estimates, methane emissions in Kazakhstan are lower than the «Zhasyl Damu» JSC estimates by 18.1% and 27.0%, respectively.Notably, the most significant deviations in estimates among sectors are observed in the "other" and energy sectors (Table 1).

Conclusion
Overall, the influence of each sector on the overall change in methane dynamics varied during the significant periods.For example, from 1991 to 2000, the solid fuels and enteric fermentation sectors had the most significant positive impact (reduction in emissions).However, from 2000 to 2010, the oil and gas sector had the most significant positive impact, while the enteric fermentation sector exacerbated methane emissions.
In the coal mining industry, the overall reduction in methane emissions using existing technologies is estimated at 51.95 kt compared to the reference scenario.Through the implementation of the strategies above and technologies, there is the potential to decrease methane emissions in the coal industry by 21% by 2030, relative to the 2020 levels.The anticipated emissions for the sector by 2030 will amount to 290.7 kt (in contrast to 330.1 kt in 2020).
According to the adopted Carbon Neutrality Strategy, a 40% reduction in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation per capita is envisioned by 2060.As part of this effort, the authors anticipate a consistent progression in this direction, thus leading to a 10% reduction in waste generation per capita by 2030.
Considering the projected population growth, emissions from the waste sector are estimated to reach 246.03 kt by 2030, which is 9.3% higher than the 2020 level.However, considering the decrease in waste generation per capita, this figure is 14.27 kt lower than the reference level.
Efforts to reduce waste generation should encompass various measures, such as: − shifting from waste management policies to secondary raw material management/recovery policies; − initiating efforts to reduce the tax burden on entities within the waste market.This policy would lead to a rapid increase in actual recycling rather than sorting; − developing and implementing an official online statistics system to collect accurate data with minimal errors.These data would facilitate the creation of investment proposals for businesses interested in secondary raw material recycling in Kazakhstan.The automation of data validation during form submission is crucial to prevent inaccuracies; − implementing food waste recycling programs.;− setting specific targets for local executive bodies related to secondary raw material processing and waste disposal; − determining the investment requirements for establishing facilities dedicated to secondary raw material processing, etc.
Summing up the results of this study, conducted with the support of the SECCA Project [18] (Seccaeu), we can conclude that the active implementation of measures in the oil and gas sector, coal industry and waste sector by 2030 will result in a 4,9% reduction in methane emission in Kazakhstan compared 2020.