Analysis of the Effects of Mesoscale Convective System on the Enhancement of Wind and Significant Wave Height in Indonesian Maritime Areas

¹ Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya, Indonesia
² Marine Meteorological Station of Tanjung Perak Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Extreme weather characterized by strong winds and high waves poses serious risks to maritime safety in the Indonesian Maritime Continent. This study comprehensively quantifies the impact of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) on Significant Wave Height and Wind Speed enhancements using Himawari-8/9 imagery and multi-mission satellite altimetry. By utilizing a robust 300-km spatial filter to isolate standalone offshore events, the research employs quantile-based and multi-classification approaches to evaluate spatial and temporal anomalies. The results indicate that ocean-atmosphere coupling is highly non-linear; multilinear regression models consistently failed to predict environmental anomalies (R²<0.03). However, quantile analysis revealed critical threshold behaviors. Spatially, intense systems consistently drove higher positive anomalies. Significantly, a multi-classification interaction analysis demonstrated that the synergistic combination of the "strongest" MCS parameters (largest area, coldest temperatures, and highest top cloud) generated wave impacts eight times greater than the "weakest" systems. Conversely, temporal responses relative to a 24-hour baseline were complex and non-monotonic, suggesting the dominance of lag effects over instantaneous intensity. These findings provide quantitative evidence that MCS modulates air-sea interactions through complex non-linear mechanisms, demonstrating that operational maritime forecasting must adopt advanced probabilistic modeling rather than relying on simple linear parameterizations to capture these hazardous events.