Research on the Influencing Factors of Non-grain Cultivation of Cultivated Land in Sichuan Province

¹ Sichuan Institute of Land Science and Technology (Sichuan Center of Satellite Application Technology), Chengdu, China
² Key Laboratory of Investigation, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization for Cultivated Land Resources, MNR, Chengdu, China
³ China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Chengdu, China
⁴ Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, China

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Abstract

To address the increasingly severe issue of non-grain cultivation of cultivated land in Sichuan Province, this study aims to systematically identify its key driving factors. Based on panel data from 21 prefecture-level cities across the province spanning from 2020 to 2022, a comprehensive indicator system encompassing five major dimensions—economic, demographic, production conditions, policy, and natural factors—was constructed. A multi- model cross-validation was conducted by integrating the geodetector model, panel model, generalized linear model, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The study revealed that the consumer price index for urban residents, the proportion of cultivated land within the cultivated land protection target, and the altitude of cultivated land exert significant inhibitory effects on non-grain cultivation. Conversely, Soil biodiversity exhibits a significant positive driving effect, which is conducive to promoting the cultivation of non-food crops. Additionally, factors such as annual precipitation and soil pH value also exhibit significant influences. The findings provide a quantitative basis for formulating differentiated cultivated land protection policies and optimizing agricultural layout in Sichuan Province. It is recommended to strengthen policy implementation and dynamic monitoring to ensure regional food security and the sustainable utilization of cultivated land.