Forecasting Development of Medical Services Market in the Context of Model-Based Innovation Economy

¹ Urgench State University, Hamid Alimdjan Street, 64, 220100, Urgench, Uzbekistan
² National University Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic, Zhukovskoho Street, 64, 69063, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine
³ Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Trubetskaya Street, 8-2, 119991, Moscow, Russia
⁴ Central Research Institute of Dentistry and Maxillofacial Surgery, Timura Frunze Street, 16, 119034, Moscow, Russia

^* Corresponding author: sadoqat8888@mail.ru

Abstract

The relevance of the article is due to the current stage of worldwide medical services development. The global nature of innovation development and digital technologies have affected all spheres of human activity, including medicine. On the other hand, the increasing role of social aspects in economic development forms new tasks in the development of healthcare. It should become of a better quality and more accessible. The paper used general scientific and special research methods. Among the special research methods, we used mathematical methods: statistical research, correlation and regression analysis. This article presents the results of forecasting the development of the medical services market in the Khorezm region of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the mid-term perspective. The mathematical model of forecasting the development of the medical services market took into account such factors as the number of private clinics, the number of employees of medical organizations, the real cost of medical services in constant prices, the number of operating hospital facilities, real total income per capita in constant prices of organizations, total income per capita in constant prices. Correlation analysis showed a high, stable relationship between the indicators. Regression analysis allowed to determine the forecast parameters of the market of medical services in the Khorezm region of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The reliability of calculations was checked by Student’s t-test and Durbin-Watson statistic test. Increasing the quality of life of the population in the region is the basis for increasing demand for quality health services and will lead to the growth of the private sector of health services.