Does Economic Growth Increase or Decrease Economic Losses and Deaths from Storm Surge Disasters in China? An Empirical Analysis from The Aspect of Hazard Exposure

¹ College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
² Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Management Technology Study, Xiamen 361013, China
³ Fujian Institute for Sustainable Oceans, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China

^* Corresponding author: linjiaju@stu.xmu.edu.cn

Abstract

Storm surge disaster is the major threat to coastal residents’ lives and property in China, which could steal away development gains in a short time. Therefore, the storm surge disaster loss reduction is an indispensable part of socio-economic development. However, the relationship between economic growth and the loss of storm surge disasters remains unclear. Herein, we explored the relationship between economic growth and the losses caused by storm surge disasters in China’s coastal zones from 1978 to 2020. We established an empirical model through the indicators of direct economic loss and death toll using negative binomial estimate and tobit estimate models. To ensure the accuracy of the model, multiple socioeconomic factors were also included in the models. The results revealed that there is an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between GDP per capita and the losses from storm surges. Furthermore, we used the entropy method to establish the storm surge hazard exposure index of China’s coastal zone from 2000 to 2020, considering disaster intensity, population density and other factors. When considering hazard exposure level, the role of economic growth may be diminished. In other words, at the same economic level, higher hazard exposure leads to greater disaster losses. We argue that economic growth and disaster resilience are not identical goals. Thus, the government needs sufficient information support when formulating disaster prevention and reduction plans.