Simulation modeling of forest plantation condition

Moscow Polytechnic University, 107023 Moscow, Russia

^* Corresponding author: logachevmaxim@gmail.com

Abstract

The article substantiates the necessity of creating a simulation model of changes in the states of forest plantations. Such a model makes it possible to repeatedly conduct experiments on the object of study on changes in different parameters in order to predict the consequences and develop operational management scenarios to reduce the negative impact on its processes and objects. The use of structural analysis, synthesis and classification methods allowed us to identify the key objects of such an ecosystem and the processes that influence their germination, growth and death. The results obtained became the basis for the creation of a system dynamics model reflecting the nature of the behavior of the objects and processes under study. With the help of simulation modeling methods, a system of differential equations was created, which takes into account the quantitative instances of objects and the rate of their changes depending on external parameters. Based on this, a graphical model reflecting all aspects of the realization of such processes has been created.