Analysis of Soybean Production Trends in Indonesia

¹ Department of Agribusiness, University of Muhammadiyah Malang, Jl. Raya Tlogomas 246, Malang 65144, East Java, Indonesia
² School of International Studies, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Bukit Kayu Hitam, Kedah, Malaysia.

^* Corresponding author: istis@umm.ac.id

Abstract

Climate change since 2012 has had a real influence on the uncertainty of soybean production which has resulted in fluctuating soybean production in Indonesia. The study purposed to: (i) analyze the fluctuation of soybean production before and during climate change, (ii) analyzing the factors that affect soybean production fluctuations covering land area (X1), soybean prices (X2), consumption (X3). The type of data used is secondary data, a time series data of soybean production in 1994 to 2019. The data was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. The analytical method used is trend analysis to analyze production fluctuations. Multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the factors that influence production fluctuations. The results showed that before climate change production trends decrease, during climate change production trends increase slightly. Factors that influence soybean production are land area (positive influence on fluctuations in soybean production by α 5 % means an increase in land area results in an increase in production), price has positive effect on soybean production fluctuations with α 5 % means an increase in price motivates farmers to produce, and consumption has positive effect on soybean production fluctuations with α 5 % means an increase in consumption motivates farmers to produce.