Forecasting business risk in organic walnut production

¹ University of Agribusiness and Rural Development, Dunav Blvd. 78, 4003 Plovdiv, Bulgaria
² D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Em. Chakarov 2, 5250 Svishtov, Bulgaria

^* Corresponding author: a s.radukanov@ts.uni-vt.bg

Abstract

The study presents a model for forecasting business risk in organic walnut production. For this purpose, a technology from financial risk management known as cash flow at risk in its variant “Top-Down approach” was adopted. Empirical data from the electronic register of organic farming in Bulgaria were used. A detailed analysis of the organic walnut production sector was made regarding the surface in hectares and the production distribution. The empirical distribution of the area of organic nuts in hectares in Bulgaria shows that small farmers predominate in 2023, with up to 6 hectares representing 55% of all, and those up to 12 hectares are a share of 78%, with the average production per farm will be 1376.53 kg.