The activities and development prospects analysis of the agricultural sector of Ukraine

¹ National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, 11 Soborna Str., Rivne, 33028, Ukraine
² National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Heroiv Oborony Str.15, Kyiv, 03041, Ukraine
³ University of Customs and Finance, Volodymyr Vernadsky Str. 2/4, Dnipro, 49000, Ukraine
⁴ Drohobych Ivan Franko State Pedagogical University, Ivana Franka Str. 24, Drohobych, Lviv region, 82100, Ukraine

^* Corresponding author: o.v.pavelko@nuwm.edu.ua

Abstract

The losses of the agrarian sector of Ukraine’s economy during the war are characterized. The dynamics of net profit, the volume of sold products and the number of enterprises involved in managing Ukraine’s agriculture, hunting and the provision of related services for 2012-2022 are analyzed. Such risks for agricultural sector functioning due to the martial law in Ukraine as loss of production and resource potential of the agricultural sector, deterioration of the technical support of agricultural enterprises, loss of part of the infrastructure for storage and primary processing of agricultural products, complication of sales on foreign markets are identified and substantiated. An analysis of capital investments by sources of financing in agriculture, hunting and the provision of related services is carried out. A linear regression model that describes the relationship between the National Bank of Ukraine discount rate and the amount of bank investment in agriculture, hunting and the provision of related services is built. A sample regression equation is formed. It is proposed that the constructed model be used to forecast the dynamics of bank lending to agriculture. The estimated 2024 recovery and reconstruction priorities of Ukraine’s agriculture are presented. Critical tasks which urgently need solutions due to the situation in Ukraine, caused by the state of war and active hostilities, are defined.