Analysis of early warning signal of land degradation risk based on time series of remote sensing data

¹ Department of Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
² Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
³ Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Széchenyi István University, 9026 Győr, Hungary
⁴ Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

^* Corresponding author: narges.karimi991@gmail.com

Abstract

This study explores the spatio-temporal dynamics of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect early signs of land degradation. Utilizing high-resolution NDVI data from the Google Earth Engine, spanning from 2004 to 2023 with a 30-meter resolution, this research analyzes monthly variations. To illustrate these dynamics, the study focuses on Sabzevar County, located in northeastern Iran, which extends over 7,217 km²and is approximately 220 kilometers distant from Mashhad. Validation of the NDVI data was performed using field observations from strategically located vegetation plots. One square meter plots were systematically established along 100-meter transects (10 transects in total), where the vegetation coverage in each plot was quantitatively assessed by experts. Comprehensive statistical analysis incorporated Kendall’s tie test, alongside measurements of autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, and standard deviation, using R software to assess the trends and intensities of NDVI changes. The findings revealed a critical breakpoint in 2020, with increases in all three statistical indices— autocorrelation 0.82, coefficient of variation 0.65, and standard deviation 0.58—indicative of accelerating degradation prior to this year. Furthermore, the intensity of NDVI changes varied significantly across the study area, ranging from 0.05 in central and northern regions to 0.76 in the western parts. This research underscores the value of integrating field data with remote sensing technology to provide a robust analytical tool for early detection of land degradation. This method enables precise, timely assessment and proactive management of vulnerable ecosystems, particularly in arid regions.