| Issue |
BIO Web Conf.
Volume 141, 2024
IX International Scientific Conference on Agricultural Science 2024 “Current State, Problems and Prospects for the Development of Agricultural Science” (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE 2024)
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|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 04043 | |
| Number of page(s) | 13 | |
| Section | Agriculture and Agri-food Systems | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202414104043 | |
| Published online | 21 November 2024 | |
Research of COVID-19 infection waves using mathematical models at different levels
1 Blagonravov Mechanical Engineering Research Institute RAS, 4, Malyi Kharitonievsky Per., Moscow, 101990, Russia
2 National Research University MEPhI, 31, Kashirskoe Shosse, Moscow, 115409, Russia
3 National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology named after the honorary academician N. F. Gamaleya, 18, Gamaleya St., Moscow, 123098, Russia
* Corresponding author: nelubin@gmail.com
The work is devoted to the problem of predicting the increase in the incidence of viral infections such as COVID-19 using mathematical models of different levels. The world continues to study the entire accumulated set of data on the fight against the new coronavirus infection, including morbidity statistics, using various analytical methods. One of these methods is the construction of mathematical models of the COVID-19 epidemic process, which is based on the “susceptible-infected- recovered” (SIR) model proposed more than a century ago. The work shows that the complication of mathematical models that take into account the change in genovariant of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to incorrect results and erroneous conclusions, both for short and long periods. At the same time, the use of a fairly simple SIR model for each period of dominance of a certain variant of the pathogen gives an acceptable forecast result for a short period.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2024
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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