Analysis of demand forecasting for Madura herbal medicine Rapet Wangi (Case study: PT. Firdaus Kurnia Indah)

Program study of Agroindustrial Technology, Department of Agricultural Science and Technology, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura, Bangkalan, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: dianfarida086@gmail.com

Abstract

PT. Firdaus Kurnia Indah's Madurese herbal products include various types, one of which is rapet wangi’s herbal medicine. This herbal medicine is specifically designed for women and is in high demand among consumers. The large demand means that the supply of rapet wangi’s herbal medicine sometimes requires pre-order. The purpose of this study is to accurately forecast the demand for rapet wangi’s herbal medicine, it is necessary to forecast demand correctly using several forecasting methods. The demand data pattern for herbal medicine products is fluctuating, so the method that can be used is the time series method, namely moving average, weight moving average, exponential smoothing and exponential smoothing with trend. The results of the forecasting analysis that will be selected are the forecasting results with the smallest MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The smallest MAPE value indicates that the forecasting error is small. The results of this research, it can be concluded that considering the data on the quantity of raw materials at PT Firdaus Kurnia Indah, the exponential smoothing method is suitable for predicting rapet wangi’s product. This is evident from the MAPE values in all models used, which produce the smallest error at 23,19% with next period forecast is 935 product.