Issue |
BIO Web Conf.
Volume 151, 2025
International Conference “Mountains: Biodiversity, Landscapes and Cultures” (MBLC-2024)
|
|
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Article Number | 01006 | |
Number of page(s) | 8 | |
Section | Agriculture and Ecology | |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202515101006 | |
Published online | 21 January 2025 |
Assessing the impact of climate change on sunflower yields using mathematical modeling
1 Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 24 Maiakska doroha str., Khlibodarske, Odesa Region, 67667, Ukraine
2 Odesa National University named after I.I. Mechnikova, 2 Dvoryanska str., Odesa, 65082, Ukraine
3 Western Caspian University, Baku, AZ1001, Azerbaijan
4 Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
* Corresponding author: fanenger@gmail.com
The article examines the agroclimatic conditions for influencing sunflower yield formation under the influence of climate change according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Based on a water-heat regime and sunflower productivity formation model, calculations and a comparative analysis of sunflower and seed yields were conducted for the climate periods 1986-2005 and 2031-2050. Under both scenarios, the expected climate and weather conditions are expected to be more favourable for sunflower cultivation in the Eastern Forest-Steppe of Ukraine. The highest risk of sunflower seed yield shortfalls in certain years is anticipated in the Southern Steppe of Ukraine, with the most significant losses expected under the RCP4.5 scenario.
Key words: sunflower / growing season / climate change / agro-climatic conditions / yield shortfall risks
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2025
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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