Assessment of the sensitivity of climate risk variables in opposed to climate hazards (study case: Pekalongan City)

Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia

^* Corresponding Author: raynaldi_rachmat@apps.ipb.ac.id

Abstract

This study focusses on assessing the climate risk in Pekalongan City by calculating the exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability by incorporating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) then conceptualize it into climate risk concept by connecting it with their respective climate hazards consist of rainfall and tidal flood. The research aims to develop climate risk index while also identifying the most sensitive risk components to communicate appropriate interventions and adaptation strategies. Weighting of variables method conducted by using PCA and simple sensitivity analysis by using the deficit index of each component’s index gained from PCA weighted with the ones that gained from the same weighted. Results exhibit that Northern Pekalongan sub-districts are the one that having high climate risk index, especially sub-districts such as Krapyak and Bandengan, reaching climate risk index almost up to 1. Sensitivity analysis founds that variable including settlement distance to rivers, fisherman families, and clean and healthy behavior families, significantly affect climate risk certainly affect the climate risk levels in a certain sub-district. From the pilot simulation of communicating best adaptation strategies, Krapyak sub-districy should addressed high-weight variables, such as the distance of business districts from the coast and the number of small-medium industries, in addition to addressing the most sensitive variables. Adaptation suggestions such as coastal protection, expanding gender-sensitive resilience programs, and supporting small-medium industries with climate-resilient technologies should be implemented.