Analysis of spatial utilization control in addressing the impact of land cover changes on the amount of carbon stock in Banyuasin Regency

¹ Department of Public Works, Highways, and Spatial Planning of South Sumatra Province, Ilir Timur I 30129, Palembang, South Sumatra, Indonesia
² Master of Engineering Program, Universitas Bandar Lampung, Bandar Lampung 35142, Lampung, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Forest and land fires, along with rapid regional development, have led to significant land cover changes in Banyuasin Regency. These changes influence carbon stock levels, necessitating spatial utilization control strategies to mitigate carbon emissions. This study aims to analyze spatial patterns of land cover change, estimate current carbon stocks, and formulate effective land use control strategies in response to carbon stock shifts. A mixed-method approach was applied, combining GIS-based quantitative analysis and carbon estimation with qualitative assessment using the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Results show that between 2013 and 2023, land cover changes followed a random spatial distribution pattern, with increased areas of plantation and plantation forest, and reduced areas of water bodies, grassland, and secondary dryland forest. Overall carbon stocks rose by 11% during this period, indicating a sequestration trend. The main contributors to sequestration were the expansion of plantations and secondary swamp forest, while rice fields and open land contributed most to emissions. Priority spatial strategies for emission areas include strict technical regulation, ecosystem preservation, and green space development. For sequestration areas, priorities include conversion bans, conservation, ecosystem restoration, and forest protection. Notably, both conditions share the common strategy of adaptive protection measures.