Spatial dynamics of built-up land development prediction based on cellular automata markov chain in tsunami prone areas of Ternate Island, Indonesia

¹ Department of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia
² Department of Geography, National Research Tomsk State University, Tomsk, 634028, Russian Federation
³ Biology Education Study Program , Pattimura University, Ambon 97233, Indonesia
⁴ Department of Aquatic Resources Management, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
⁵ Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Ternate Island's coastal geography makes it highly susceptible to tsunamis, and increasing built-up land intensifies this risk. This study analyzes the spatial dynamics of built-up land development in tsunami-prone areas using land cover data from 2005, 2015, and 2025, along with driving factors such as elevation, distance from roads, and economic centers. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-Markov) method was used to project land cover for 2035 and 2045. Tsunami hazard zones were modeled using elevation, slope, 2025 land cover, and distances from the coastline and rivers. Overlay analysis of built-up land predictions with tsunami hazard zones reveals a continual expansion of built-up areas over time. Tsunami- prone zones were classified into low (31.77%), medium (24.83%), and high (43.40%) hazard levels. The findings show a direct correlation between the expansion of built-up land and increased exposure to tsunami hazards, emphasizing the need for spatial planning strategies to mitigate future risks.