Contribution of the AFOLU sector to Indonesia's long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR 2050)

¹ Electrical Engineering Department, and Center for Environmental and Renewable Energy Studies (PuSLET), University of Surabaya, Jl. Raya Kalirungkut, Indonesia.
² Informatics Engineering Dept., University of Surabaya, Jl. Raya Kalirungkut, Indonesia
³ Biotechnology Faculty, University of Surabaya, Jl. Raya Kalirungkut, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is central to Indonesia's Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR 2050), particularly in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhancing climate resilience. This study evaluates the sector's contribution through a combination of policy document review, secondary data analysis, and comparative benchmarking. Historical GHG data from 1990 to 2022 and projections to 2050 were analyzed using Indonesia's National GHG Inventory, the Climate Transparency Report, and World Bank datasets. Results indicate that in 2022, the sector accounted for approximately 55% of national emissions, with forestry and land-use change as primary sources. Under LTS-LCCR 2050, the sector targets a net sink status by 2030 via reduced deforestation, peatland restoration, sustainable agriculture, and improved land governance. Persistent challenges include enforcement limitations, financing gaps, and competing land demands. The study concludes that achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 or earlier will require stronger policy coherence, increased investment in low-emission agricultural practices, and adaptive land management to fully realize the AFOLU sector's potential in supporting Indonesia's low-carbon and climate-resilient development goals.