Measuring export similarity in the ASEAN agricultural sector: Evidence from Indonesia’s agrifood and non-agrifood trade

¹ Agricultural Economics Study Programs, Faculty of Economic and Management, IPB University, Jl. Kamper IPB Dramaga W5L4, Bogor, West Java, 16680, Indonesia
² IPB University, Jl. Raya Darmaga Kampus IPB, Kab. Bogor, West Java, 16680, Indonesia
³ Department of Resources and Environmental Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management, IPB University, Jl. Agatis Dramaga IPB Dramaga, Bogor, West Java, 16680, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Agricultural trade remains a crucial pillar of ASEAN's economic cooperation, yet the region still faces challenges in aligning its export structures across member countries. Despite ongoing integration efforts, differences in commodity composition may limit collective competitiveness in global markets. This study aims to measure and compare the similarity of Indonesia's agricultural exports with those of other ASEAN members during 2003–2022, using the Export Similarity Index (ESI). The analysis distinguishes between agrifood products (HS 1-24) and non-agrifood commodities (HS 40–44) to capture variations in trade specialization. The results reveal that Indonesia's export similarity is moderate, averaging 0.21 for agrifood and 0.11 for non-agrifood products. Vietnam and Myanmar exhibit higher similarity in agrifood trade, while Malaysia and Thailand show stronger alignment in non-agrifood exports. The overall agricultural similarity index reaches 0.32, indicating gradual convergence amid structural differences. These findings highlight that ASEAN's agricultural trade integration remains uneven, emphasizing the importance of coordinated policies to strengthen value-added trade and enhance regional competitiveness.