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Table 1.

Probabilities of unprecedented rainfall from the decadal hindcasts. The 95% confidence intervals in the probabilities are shown in brackets.

CHIRPS Iberia01 E-OBS
Spring

Max Obs 418 456 319

N above 20 7 41

Probability (95% CI) 0.013 (0.008, 0.020) 0.005(0.002,0.009) 0.027(0.020,0.036)

Summer

Max Obs 389 460 384

N above 56 13 43

Probability (95% CI) 0.037 (0.028,0.047) 0.009(0.005,0.015) 0.028(0.021,0.038)

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