Improved Dynamic Model of The North Sulawesi Province Food Security System

Sam Ratulangi University, Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: robertmolenaar@unsrat.ac.id

Abstract

Dynamics of the North Sulawesi food security system is studied in this research, where various factors related to food consumption and production are identified. Since rice is accepted as the main food commodity for the Indonesian population, the source of 50% of the average Indonesian’s daily calorie intake, therefore, the behavior of the food security system studied is related to the condition of the availability of rice to meet the consumption of the population in North Sulawesi Province. System dynamics is used as the methodology with the objectives to identify the various factors that influence rice consumption and production in North Sulawesi Province, and develop model accordingly to simulate the dinamics of rice availability in response to changes in rice consumption and production factors. The simulation carried out for a period of 25 years, namely from 2022 to 2047, resulted that at the rice production side, the current productivity cannot meet the need of North Sulawesi Province population consumption, causing importing rice must be carried out to fill up the gap. By improving the production and consumption aspects, such as using high yield variety of rice and introducing food diversification, the availability of rice become sufficient to meet the consumption needs of the people of North Sulawesi. This study then recommends the improvement for sustainable development of food security system in North Sulawesi Province.