Prediction of Flood Events from the Nekor River Discharge Using the Flood Frequential Analysis Method

¹ Laboratory of Engineering Sciences and Applications, National School of Applied Sciences of Al-Hoceima, Abdelmalek Essaâdi University, Ajdir 03, Morocco
² Laboratory of Functional Ecology and Environment Engineering, Faculty of sciences and techniques, University of Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah, Fez 30500, Morocco

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the yearly most extreme release of the Nekor River monitoring station Tamellaht between 1973 and 2011 and to predict possible future events using the Flood Frequency Analysis Method (FFA). We use the four most estimated distributions that are accessible for prediction of hydrological risk: the three Log Normal, LogPerson Type III, Weibull and GAMMA distributions, and conclude that the Weibull distribution is the suitable statistical model that describe well into our data series, even though the other distributions show data adjustment. Given the Weibull dispersion, the upsides of 580.3 m3/s, 1339 m3/s and 2146.7 m3/s are for the time of return of 10, 50 and 100 years, individually, still high relying upon the semi-dry environment that wins around this region. In fact, the period of extreme returns of the 10th period which can cause dangerous flooding especially considering the mountainous characteristics of the region. The magnitude of the floods is greater because the return period is greater, which explains the semi-arid climate of this region. In addition, a simple statistical description shows that the maximum flow trend has declined over the years, reflecting a possible impact of climate change phenomena.