Power PV Forecasting using Machine Learning Algorithms Based on Weather Data in Semi-Arid Climate

¹ Laboratory of Signals, Systems, and Components, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco.
² Green Energy Park research platform (um6p/iresen), Ben Guerir, Morocco.
³ Laboratory of Innovative Technologies, Sidi Mohamed Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco.
⁴ Mohammed V University in Rabat, ERTE, ENSAM, Rabat, Morocco.

^* Corresponding author: mohamed.boujoudar1@usmba.ac.ma

Abstract

As the energy demand continues to rise, renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly popular. PV systems convert solar radiation into electricity, making them an attractive option for reducing reliance on traditional electricity sources and decreasing carbon emissions. To optimize the usage of PV systems, intelligent forecasting algorithms are essential. They enable better decisionmaking regarding cost and energy efficiency, reliability, power optimization, and economic smart grid operations. Machine learning algorithms have proven to be effective in estimating the power of PV systems, improving accuracy by allowing models to understand complex relationships between parameters and evaluate the output power performance of photovoltaic cells. This work presents a study on the use of machine learning algorithms Catboost, LightGBM, XGboost and Random Forest to improve prediction. The study results indicate that using machine learning algorithms LightGBM can improve the accuracy of PV power prediction, which can have significant implications for optimizing energy usage. In addition to reducing uncertainty, machine learning algorithms improve PV systems’ efficiency, reliability, and economic viability, making them more attractive as renewable energy sources.