| Issue |
BIO Web Conf.
Volume 113, 2024
XVII International Scientific and Practical Conference “State and Development Prospects of Agribusiness” (INTERAGROMASH 2024)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 06015 | |
| Number of page(s) | 10 | |
| Section | Hygiene, Ecology and Human Health | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202411306015 | |
| Published online | 18 June 2024 | |
Calibrating the parameters of the cholera epidemic spread model
Don State Technical University, 1, Gagarin Square, 344003 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
* Corresponding author: baturinata@mail.ru
A system-dynamic model of cholera spread, which takes into account different ways of infection and restrictive measures, is developed. The model allows calibration of a large number of system parameters based on data on the number of infected real observations. Three scenarios of epidemic development (blurred peak, pronounced peak, plateau and two peaks) are investigated. The developed model can be modified for other scenarios and epidemics. Its implementation does not require large computing and human resources. It can be used to pre-predict the dynamics of the epidemic, as well as to organize effective measures to prevent threats associated with a pandemic.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2024
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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