Logistic model for forecasting the growth of Ukrainian dairy exports

National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, 11 Soborna str., Rivne, 33028, Ukraine

^* Corresponding author: o.v.popko@nuwm.edu.ua

Abstract

A logistic model has been proposed for forecasting the growth of Ukrainian dairy exports. The model takes into account the growth rates of consumption, imports, and domestic production of the importing country. It can be considered a decision-making tool for operators of the Ukrainian dairy market when developing an export strategy for future periods. To evaluate the potential attractiveness of sales markets for dairy product exports, we propose an analytical toolkit based on the taxonomy method. This toolkit facilitates the assessment of the potential attractiveness of foreign markets through sequential stages. These stages include identifying key criteria for determining the prospects of countries for the supply of dairy products, forming a matrix of input indicators, standardizing key factors for assessing market prospects, and calculating the integral coefficient of potential attractiveness for importing countries. This ranking system allows for a reasonable assessment of countries importing dairy products. The analytical tools developed for assessing the potential attractiveness of foreign markets and the logistic model for forecasting the growth of Ukrainian dairy exports enable practical monitoring of the prospects of potential foreign markets on an annual basis. They also facilitate timely and informed decisions on changing the export strategy and diversifying markets.