Short-Term Impacts of Elevated Temperatures on Maternal and Child Health in Primary Care Visits: Insights from The Special Region of Yogyakarta

¹ Center for Health Behaviour and Promotion, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
² Master of Public Health Program, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
³ Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
⁴ Department of Health Behaviour, Environment, and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding alramadona@ugm.ac.id

Abstract

Maternal and child health is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In Indonesia, the Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG; Meteorological, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency) has reported a notable temperature increase, with an average increase of 0.8 °C compared with the 1991–2020 baseline. Although the relevant literature is expanding, empirical evidence from tropical regions—characterized by persistently high heat and humidity—remains scarce. This study intends to assess the existing evidence on the impact of elevated temperatures on maternal and child health in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, and to examine potential policy implications for fostering adaptations in health systems and preparedness for climate-related risks. Daily temperature data for 2021 were obtained from BMKG, while patient visit records to primary and referral healthcare facilities—specifically maternity and pediatric clinics—were sourced from the Social Security Agency for Health (BPJS) data sample. Analysis included data visualization, correlation analysis, and Poisson regression modeling. The results revealed a short-term association between elevated temperatures and increased daily maternal–child patient visits. However, data derived from Sundays and public holidays may inaccurately reflect this relationship, because many primary healthcare providers are not operational on these days. Nevertheless, these observations are important for assessing the overall weekly impact of elevated temperatures on patient visits. In conclusion, every 1 °C increase in average weekly temperature is associated with an estimated 15.5% increase in maternal–child patient visits to primary healthcare facilities (95% CI: 2.8– 29.7%). This association may reflect underlying biological mechanisms such as impaired placental function and reduced uterine blood flow. The study highlights the importance of developing climate-responsive health early warning systems, adjusting service delivery in primary care settings during periods of high temperature, and enhancing health education for pregnant women and caregivers to mitigate temperature-related health risks.