Export Resilience and Competitive Landscapes of Ornamental Foliage Plants in ASEAN-Plus Markets: Evidence from Pre-, During, and Post-COVID Periods

¹ Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Muhammadiyah Jakarta, Jakarta, 15419, Indonesia
² Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, 55584, Indonesia
³ Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, 43400, Malaysia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in reshaping the competitive landscape of ornamental foliage plant exports (HS 0602) from Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam across three major ASEAN-Plus FTA markets: Japan (AJCEP), China (ACFTA), and South Korea (AKFTA). Utilizing Constant Market Share (CMS) decomposition for the 2017–2024 period, the research compares the pre-pandemic (2017–2019), pandemic (2020–2021), and post-pandemic (2022–2024) phases. Results indicate heterogeneous trajectories: South Korea emerged as the most resilient market with stable demand growth, while China faced severe market contractions (negative MGE). Key findings reveal a divergence in strategies, distinguishing between structural strength and market opportunism. Thailand and Vietnam dominated Japan and China through massive post-pandemic Market Share Effect (MSE) expansion, yet exhibited declining internal competitiveness. Conversely, Indonesia demonstrated qualitative resilience with a positive Competitiveness Effect (CE) of +43.1 in Japan, despite ongoing quantitative market-share erosion. The results suggest that zero tariff preferences alone are insufficient to ensure market dominance. Policy implications emphasize the need for strategic recalibration from mere tariff utilization toward strengthening non-tariff factors. The study concludes that export sustainability in Asia depends heavily on exporters’ ability to convert internal competitiveness into tangible market share dominance.