Analysis of the Incidence Rates of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Based on Land Cover, NDVI, and NDBI in Bengkulu City in 2018-2021

¹ Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, University of Bengkulu, Bengkulu, Indonesia
² Medical Program, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, University of Bengkulu, Bengkulu, Indonesia
³ Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, University of Bengkulu, Bengkulu, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: dessy.triana@unib.ac.id

Abstract

In 2022, the incidence rate (IR) of dengue in Indonesia was 34.33%, with environmental factors playing a role in its distribution. Changes in land cover can alter microclimatic conditions, such as rainfall and temperature, which indirectly affect the habitat, breeding, and activity of mosquito vectors This study employed a quantitative method with an ecological approach and a time series model to analyze land cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) in Bengkulu City between 2018 and 2021. Accuracy tests for each map involved 42 sample points, totaling 504 points overall. The samples were calculated using the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient formulas assisted by a confusion matrix. Statistical tests, including multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests, were also carried out. The results indicated that the IR of dengue in Bengkulu City decreased from 2018 to 2021. The low-density category of NDVI had a nondirectional influence on the IR of dengue (-0,733), while the moderate-density category of NDVI had a unidirectional influence on the IR of dengue (0,487). NDVI simultaneously influenced the IR of dengue (R² = 38%). Meanwhile, NDBI and land cover simultaneously and partially did not influence the IR of dengue. An increase in low-density NDVI areas reduced the IR of dengue, while a decrease in moderate-density NDVI areas reduced the IR of dengue (β = - 0.487).