Food security indicators in Armenia: Trends in self-sufficiency and spending

¹ The Institute of Economics after M. Kotanyan of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, 15 Grigor Lusavorich Str., Yerevan 0015, Armenia
² Armenian National Agrarian University, Faculty of Agribusiness and Economics, 74 Teryan Str., Yerevan 0009, Armenia
³ Armenian State University of Economics, Chair of Theory of Economics, 128 Nalbandyan Str., Yerevan 0025, Armenia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Food security is a fundamental determinant of human welfare, with the right to food codified in international declarations and national constitutions. Despite global increases in agricultural output, food insecurity persists. This study quantitatively assesses food independence in the Republic of Armenia and identifies determinants of household consumption structures under global risk conditions. The hypothesis posits that Armenia’s food system remains vulnerable to external shocks due to persistent wheat import dependence. The methodological framework integrates import dependency ratio calculations, comparative time series analysis, and regression modeling. Findings reveal that food security determinants include socioeconomic conditions, agricultural productivity, geopolitical instability, climate variability, and food price fluctuations. Technological constraints within the food supply chain, namely post harvest losses, inadequate processing and storage infrastructure, and limited agri food digitalization, emerge as critical barriers. These factors restrict domestic value addition and perpetuate dependence on imported processed foods. Empirical results show critically low wheat self sufficiency at 22.8 percent with persistent import dependence near 78 percent. Regression analysis indicates that income growth correlates with reduced bread consumption, reflecting dietary shifts and price effects. The study concludes that improving food security requires targeted deployment of food technologies, including advanced grain storage, precision agriculture, and processing innovations, combined with coordinated policy measures to strengthen agricultural productivity and reduce systemic vulnerabilities.