Flood modeling in the Ambon City Center River Basin using maxent model and environmental variables

¹ Geograpy Education Study Program, Universitas Pattimura, Ambon, Indonesia
² Faculty of Geology and Geography, Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russian Federation

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 1, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 2

Abstract

The river basins in the Ambon city center area frequently experience annual flooding, which causes environmental damage and disrupts community social-economic activities. This study aims to model flood hazards using environmental variables, including elevation, slope, aspect, TWI (Topographic Wetness Index), soil type, precipitation, land use type 2026, river density, distance to river, and flood event location data. The MaxEnt method based on machine learning was employed in this research. The flood modeling results indicate that elevation (53.3%), land cover (42.3%), and drainage density (1.9%) have a significant influence on this disaster. The flood hazard model shows high-risk areas covering 590 ha, moderate-risk areas 1,528 ha, and low-risk areas 2,828 ha. The Wai Ruhu river basin has the largest extent in the high flood hazard class at 177 ha, followed by Wai Tomu (134 ha), Wae Batumerah (115 ha), Wae Batu Gajah (99 ha), and Wae Batu Gantung (66 ha). Overlay results of flood hazards with 2026 built-up land in the river basins reveal that settlements in high-risk classes cover 32%, moderate-risk 52%, and low-risk 16%. The research findings are expected to assist local government in future flood disaster mitigation efforts in the river basins.