| Issue |
BIO Web Conf.
Volume 161, 2025
International Scientific and Practical Conference “Agriculture and Food Security: Technology, Innovation, Markets, Human Resources” (FIES 2024)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 00031 | |
| Number of page(s) | 5 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202516100031 | |
| Published online | 27 February 2025 | |
Forced forecast of agricultural development in the European North of Russia
1 Azov-Black Sea Engineering Institute – branch of Don State Agrarian University in Zernograd, Zernograd, Russia
2 Kuban State Agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin, Krasnodar, Russia
* Corresponding author: asaturyan-serg@mail.ru
The aim of the work is to identify the key factors affecting the development of the agrarian sector of the region, determine the cyclical regularities of its development and create a model of forced forecasting based on advanced methodological approaches. The work analyses statistical data, scientific literature and expert assessments, which allowed us to identify specific features of agricultural development in the northern climate. The method of spectral analysis of time series was applied to identify cyclical fluctuations in the production of various types of agricultural products. The scenarios of agricultural development, including inertial, moderate-innovation and forced scenarios, were developed. It is shown that the forced scenario is the most promising for ensuring food security and increasing the competitiveness of the agricultural sector of the region. The results of the study can be used to develop strategies and programmes for agricultural development and to adjust the development plans of the agricultural sector.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2025
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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